From our Leader in September 1, 2023 Digital Edition
Venkat Raman
Auckland, September 1, 2023
National Party Leader Christopher Luxon is upbeat about the ensuing general election (October 14, 2023) with his Party colleagues eagerly waiting to lead a government of their own.
Most Opinion Polls however have thus far said that National will need the strength of the ACT Party to get back to the Treasury benches, with some suggesting the return of Winston Peters as the kingmaker if his New Zealand First raises above the current expectations.
The Labour Party, which has taken a severe beating in recent Opinion Polls, is maintaining a bold stance with its Leader Chris Hipkins leading a team that seems to be running out of luck and morale, not to overlook the recent spate of debacles.
Mr Luxon is a happy man, for, people are increasingly favouring a Centre-Right government, although ACT Party Leader David Seymour is close on his heels. In fact, Mr Luxon has already declared him Deputy Prime Minister.
Some imponderables
Whether the electorate would return to hung Parliament as it did in September 2005 and 2017 or decide conclusively on a single-party victory (2020) is still difficult to say but there are a number of imponderables that leaders of the four or five prospective parties must overcome before the country goes for voting from October 2, 2023.
Jacinda Ardern began well in 2017 and reached the peak in her career with a thumping majority in 2020 but shortly thereafter began to fade. Her successor Chris Hipkins has been firefighting and has had the unenvious task of dumping unpopular policies.
The going was good for Labour until last year when people felt strangulated by Labour’s restrictive and divisive policies such as Co-Governance, Three Waters Reforms, discriminatory treatment favouring Maori and many others.
The First Indian Newslink Opinion Poll, conducted last month, has demonstrated people’s anger and their anxiety for change. With just 16.8% of the respondents saying that they will vote for Labour, the Party is in real trouble. A majority of them identifying themselves as People of Indian Origin (60.5%) said that they would vote for National. The ACT Party was the favourite of 14.2%, while 4.2% chose New Zealand First. The Green Party was the fourth favourite (3.2%) and The Opportunities Party was at a distance of 0.5%. Other political parties did not score at all.
Labour and National have been wooing voters to cast their party votes in their favour – an odd system in which a candidate, defeated at the electorate, can still make it to Parliament through the Party List. Minority parties (especially ACT, Greens and New Zealand First) have thrived on Party votes.
That is one of the vagaries of the Mixed Member Proportion (MMP) system, which few of us have understood.
Indian community matters
Voter turnout from the Indian community would also be critical to both parties since party votes in some key constituencies could tilt the balance in the final analysis.
It is often argued that Indians will not vote if they feel that an election does not offer a chance of real change, what is termed a ‘mobilising election.’ Such change can come either from the party in power or from the one that aspires to get to the beehive.
Experience here and elsewhere has proved that when an election can make a difference, turnout rises. On that score, Election 2023 could create history; for, the electorate in general and the Indian community in particular, is increasingly becoming aware that a few hundred votes could change the fortune of a candidate or the Party in question.
Some say that people badly want the government out, they will go to the polls in greater numbers. But for the moment, they are apathetic, if not content.
In theory, votes should be decisive. People are consulted, a new government is formed; the losers accept the result and political discussions begin again on a new basis and the government and the nation carry on until it is time to poll again.
