(Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Venkat Raman
Auckland, May 18, 2025
US President Trump’s recent visit to the Arab Gulf has precipitated a series of diplomatic ripples, if not outright waves, across a region long accustomed to geopolitical flux. His sojourn to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), coupled with subsequent pronouncements on Syria, Yemen, Iran, and the delicate Indo-Pakistani relationship, has ignited cautious optimism and considerable apprehension.
The centrepiece of his Middle Eastern engagement was undoubtedly the Riyadh Summit. There, the President adopted a markedly conciliatory tone towards regional leaders, a departure from his campaign rhetoric. This shift was underscored by substantial arms deals with Saudi Arabia, framed as a means to bolster regional security against Iranian influence. While hailed by Saudi authorities as a watershed moment in US-Arab relations, the deals drew criticism from quarters concerned about their potential to exacerbate regional conflicts. The emphasis on counter-terrorism cooperation resonated with many regional actors, yet the precise contours of this collaboration remained somewhat nebulous.
Second Chance Yemen, Syria and Iran
His stance on Syria has also undergone a noticeable evolution. Initially, the administration signalled a desire to reduce US involvement in the Syrian conflict, focusing instead on combating ISIS. His pronouncements regarding Yemen and Iran have been characterised by a cautious, albeit firm, approach. The decision to grant both nations “another chance” reflects a desire to explore diplomatic avenues while maintaining a posture of vigilance.
In the case of Yemen, the humanitarian crisis remains a paramount concern, and the administration’s focus on facilitating a negotiated settlement is seen as a welcome, if belated, step. However, the complexities of the Yemeni conflict, with its myriad factions and external influences, pose a formidable challenge to any peace initiative.
Regarding Iran, the administration has adopted a dual-track strategy, combining robust rhetoric with a willingness to engage in dialogue. While denouncing Iran’s regional activities and ballistic missile programme, the administration has also signalled an openness to renegotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a move that has elicited mixed reactions from European allies and regional stakeholders. The delicate balance between pressure and diplomacy will be crucial in shaping future US-Iranian relations.
(Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
The regional response to these developments has been multifaceted. While some nations have welcomed the perceived shift towards a more assertive US foreign policy, others have expressed concerns about the potential for increased regional instability. The Saudi-led bloc sees the US commitment as a vital counterweight to Iranian influence, while Qatar, despite its initial warmth, faces increased scrutiny due to its complex regional relationships. The delicate interplay between these regional powers, coupled with the unpredictable nature of the current US administration, has created an environment of heightened uncertainty.
Terrorist Killings, India-Pakistan conflict
While Mr Trump condemned the terrorist attacks that killed 26 men (24 of them Hindus) in the Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, 2025, he stopped short of naming Pakistan for its complicity has not amused India. His later statement that he had asked Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook to move the company’s manufacturing to the US and not to India has further enraged the Indian media (if not the Indian government).
Against this backdrop, Mr Trump’s assertion of having brokered a ceasefire during Operation Sindoor, an Indian military action, precipitated a diplomatic imbroglio. India categorically refuted the claim, asserting that no such external mediation had occurred. This denial underscored India’s long-standing policy of resolving bilateral disputes without third-party intervention, particularly concerning matters of national security.
(Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Subsequently, the Trump administration appeared to recede from the initial claim, offering somewhat ambiguous clarifications. This backtracking fuelled speculation about the veracity of the original statement and raised questions about the administration’s understanding of regional sensitivities. The incident highlighted the potential for miscommunication and the importance of accurate diplomatic pronouncements, particularly in the context of delicate geopolitical relationships. It left observers questioning the administration’s grasp of the nuances of South Asian diplomacy.
The backpedalling and reiteration of the US’s preference for bilateral talks did little to dispel the initial unease. The episode highlighted the perceived volatility of the administration’s foreign policy, leaving Indian policymakers grappling with the question of where US priorities truly lie. This perceived inconsistency has fuelled anxieties about the predictability of US policy towards South Asia. In India, where strategic autonomy is a cornerstone of foreign policy, the notion of external mediation in the Kashmir issue is particularly sensitive.
Stirring the regional pot
The incident has prompted a reassessment of the perceived alignment between Indian and US interests, leading to a heightened sense of caution.
Mr Trump’s recent tour and policy pronouncements have undeniably stirred the regional pot.
The broader uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s political thought has also contributed to this feeling of unease. His tendency towards impulsive statements and his unconventional approach to diplomacy have created a climate of unpredictability, making it difficult for Indian analysts to discern a consistent strategic vision. This ambiguity has fostered a sense of wariness, as India seeks to navigate the shifting sands of international relations. The need for clear and consistent communication from the US administration has become paramount, as India strives to maintain stability and pursue its strategic objectives in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
The region watches with bated breath, as the implications of these diplomatic manoeuvres unfold, shaping the future landscape of the Middle East and South Asia.
