From our Leader in Indian Newslink Digital Edition dated February 15, 2024
Venkat Raman
Auckland, February 14, 2024
Pakistan stands the risk of losing world sympathy along with its credibility if the country’s political and military leaders continue to tamper with the process of democracy.
The general election held on February 8, 2024 and the subsequent drama being played out is indicative of the world’s scepticism over the country’s ability to come to terms with the choice of the people.
To start with, the people of Pakistan, by giving an outstanding mandate to the candidates owing allegiance to the outlawed Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have sent a clear message to all concerned: that their integrity and choice should be supreme and that no one, including the Military, should meddle with their political choice.
Three major blocs, no majority
The PTI won 93 seats, the largest number out of the 266 contested seats (60 seats will be allotted to women and 10 to Non-Muslims), demonstrating their support to former Prime Minister and PTI Leader Imran Khan who is now in prison serving a long sentence.
Former, three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who returned from exile, was able to garner only 75 seats as the Leader of his Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), while the Pakistan People’s Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and grandson of former President Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto) obtained 54 seats. The Muttahida Quami Movement Pakistan (MQM-P) got 17 seats, while other minor parties took a total of 17 seats.
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Under the Constitution, the Independents can join any Party of their choice within three days of the announcement of the final results, but the National Assembly (Parliament) must convene on or before February 29, 2024. Thus far, none of the Parties has announced its intention to work together – the Independents owing allegiance to PTI have said that they will not join any Party (although someone in PML-N claimed that ten members had joined the Party), Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has declared that his Party will not be a part of the PML-N government and that he would not stake his claim to be the Foreign Minister again.
Uncertain, tense situation
At press time, the situation was not only uncertain but also tense in Pakistan. Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of Nawaz was reportedly in consultation with other parties including the PPP and according to one source, Army General Sayed Asim Munir had praised his efforts and said that the general election was ‘free and fair.’
Not many Pakistanis would agree. Senior members of the community in the USA, Australia and New Zealand say that the general election had its usual stamp of vote rigging, violence, intimidation and army meddling.
Many political observers shared this view.
The Army jammed the internet and suspended mobile services.
There were delays in the announcement of results which the Election Commission of Pakistan attributed to unspecified internet issues.
Observers said that the Election Commission effectively obstructed Mr Khan and his PTI Party in the run-up to the election. It initially barred Returning officers from certifying results in many constituencies and ordered a repeat of the vote in dozens of polling stations after reports of snatched and destroyed ballot papers.
In at least 24 constituencies, 13 of which were won by PML-N, the number of rejected ballots was higher than the margin of victory, opening the door to legal challenges.
Frederic Grare, a South Asia expert at the College of National Security College of Australian National University said that Pakistan has been on a slippery but mild slope for some time.
“But the slope is now much stiffer. The military will most likely be able to manage the situation for some time but the political situation is likely to be less and less stable,” he said.
The United States, Brian and the European Union have separately expressed concerns about Pakistan and were worried that Pakistan will not be able to undertake reforms needed to secure a vital, new International Monetary Fund Programme later this year. They believe that economic reforms will be effective only with political stability.
Looming economic crisis
Economic crisis looms over Pakistan, with dwindling foreign currency reserves which will be further exacerbated by a US$ 1 billion bond payment in two months. Worse, the country’s US$3 billion funding programme with the IMF will expire on April 12, 2024.
Granting another US$ 700 million under its Programme, the IMF said on January 11, 2024, the IMF told the Pakistan government that continued, timely and consistent implementation of specified policies and programmes is critical.
“There is no room for slippage. This required strict adherence to fiscal targets while protecting social spending, a market-determined exchange rate to absorb external shocks, and further progress on structural reforms to support stronger and more inclusive growth,” the IMF said after its review meeting.
Azeema Cheema, Founder-Director of Verso Consulting, an Islamabad-based research firm, said that the election result was a verdict of the people against military interference in politics and against suppression.
“The voter has come out in anger, desperation or disillusion,” she said.
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton, Britain’s Foreign Secretary, said that there were serious concerns about the fairness of elections and lack of inclusivity.
“We regret that not all parties were formally permitted to contest the elections and that legal processes were used to prevent some political leaders from participation, and to prevent the use of recognisable party symbols,” he said.
But the Americans had a different take.
A US State Department spokesperson said, “Despite criticism, the United States will work with the next Pakistani government, regardless of political party to advance our shared interests.”
