Colmar Bruton also shows Labour down to 44%, Jacinda Ardern still preferred PM
TVNZ TV One News, September 27, 2021
ACT and its Leader David Seymour continue to surge in popularity in the latest 1News Colmar Brunton Poll, leaving National Party Leader Judith Collins in his dust and at her lowest preferred Prime Minister result as Opposition Leader. In party support, the major political parties are down slightly, while ACT has moved up to 14% support.
Ms Collins’ preferred PM ranking has sunk to her lowest ever since becoming National Leader, dropping by 4%, now sitting on just 5%.
She last received below 5% in the June 2020 poll prior to becoming leader where she got 2%, before climbing to 20% immediately after taking the position from Todd Muller.
Simon Bridges was at 5% when he was rolled by Todd Muller.
“It is two-years out (from the next election). I think that people really want some answers and solutions when it comes to the current lockdown situation. They are looking forward to those solutions coming from the National Party,” she said.
Ms Collins said that the Party’s had four leaders in a very short period of time and that is clearly not the solution. We need to keep focused on the things that matter.
Encouraging for David Seymour
Meanwhile, Mr Seymour has overtaken the Opposition Leader and jumped up ahead to his highest ever ranking at 11%.
On his result, Mr Seymour said it was “very encouraging.”
“Obviously, we are really thrilled people are getting behind ACT, but it just shows that we have to work harder to deliver for them; so it is a bit of a chicken and egg thing,” he said.
Still significantly ahead, Jacinda Ardern took a dip down by 4% as preferred PM to 44%.
She said that the numbers showed that “despite a really tough couple of months, there is still really strong support for the plan that we have.”
Preferred Prime Minister
Jacinda Ardern: 44% (down 4%-points)
David Seymour: 11% (up 5%)
Judith Collins: 5% (down 4%)
Christopher Luxon: 3%
Simon Bridges: 2%
Don’t know: 21% (up 2%)
Refused: 3% (up 2%)
Both the major parties took a 3% drop in support – Labour down to 43% and National to 26%. It is Labour’s worst result after Covid hit on February 28, 2020.
Ms Ardern said Labour’s result still indicated “strong support to the plan we have as a Government, to get us through this particular outbreak, but also to take us into the future.”
“This has been a really tough couple of months for New Zealanders, yet to still hold that level of confidence in the plan we have, in a world where no country has escaped from the cost of Covid – I consider that to be an endorsement of what we are doing,” she said.
Five-Point Plan of Sir John Key
Over the weekend, former Prime Minister Sir John Key came out with a Five-Point proposal to raise vaccination rates as a part of the Covid response.
In her response, Ms Ardern said that it was for the National Party members (past and present) to discuss their own approach to Covid.
“For us, I will just fall back on our record, the lowest case numbers, death rates, hospitalisations, lowest unemployment and a return to an economy of pre-Covid levels. Relative to the rest of the OECD, New Zealand has done extraordinarily well,” she said.
Ms Collins said that National’s result was “a little bit above what we were in the election, it also tells us that we have got a long way to go and we are two years out from an election. So, just have to keep focused on things that matter.”
ACT, on the other hand, took a sizeable jump up by 5% to 14% support. In comparison to this time last year prior to the election, ACT was on 7%.
Leader David Seymour put his party’s rise down to “good honest politics.”
“We go out, we listen, we propose better ideas to take our country forward.”
Labour Party: 43% (down 3%-points)
National Party: 26% (down 3%)
ACT: 14% (up 5%)
Green Party: 8%
New Zealand First: 3% (up 2%)
Te Paati Maori /Maori Party: 2%
New Conservative: 1%
TOP: 1% (down 1%)
Don’t know: 6%
Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding.
Labour’s latest numbers would mean that it would not be able to govern alone, needing the support of the Green Party.
Parliamentary seats entitlement based on poll results:
Labour Party: 55
National Party: 34
ACT Party: 18
Green Party: 10
Maori Party: 3
Seat Entitlement Method
The Parliament seat entitlement method assumes that Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki. In early July 2017, then-Opposition leader Andrew Little received 5% as preferred Prime Minister, while Jacinda Ardern received 6% and Winston Peters received 11%. A late July poll saw Mr Little and Ms Ardern both at 6% and Mr Peters on 10%, before Ms Ardern took over as Labour Leader.
Five per cent was Little’s lowest score as preferred PM while he was Opposition Leader.
About the Colmar Brunton Poll
Between September 22-26, 2021, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.
The above story and pictures appeared on the TVNZ website.