Balaji Chandramohan
New Delhi, May 20, 2023
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair the Indo-Pacific Islands Cooperation Forum in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea on Sunday, May 21, 2023 (PMO Photo)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Papua New Guinea on May 22nd is likely to be a game changer in India-Pacific Islands relations.
Mr PM Modi will visit Papua New Guinea and host the third India-Pacific Islands Cooperation Forum (FIPIC). The earlier meetings were held in Fiji in 2014 and in Jaipur in August 2015.
As India wishes to extend its influence in the Pacific Islands and the South Pacific, the visit acquires greater importance. There has been a rearrangement of diplomatic relations with some of the countries with the Cook Islands and Vanuatu coming under the jurisdiction of the Indian High Commission in Wellington.
Expansion of Missions
Diplomatic sources have told Indian Newslink that India wishes to open diplomatic missions in several countries of the South Pacific including Samoa and Tonga (which are currently served from Wellington and Suva respectively). The increased presence and India’s desire to enhance its influence in the Pacific Islands Forum could be motivational to this expansion.
New Delhi has long expressed its desire to become a Full and Permanent Member of the Pacific Islands Forum, which has been blocked thus far by a few countries, notably Australia and New Zealand. With his close working relationship with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Mr Modi may be able to bring the Australians to agree, leaving New Zealand to take the crucial decision.
India’s membership to the Forum will accord New Delhi opportunities for the Pacific Islands leaders to discuss the political, economic and developmental issues facing the region in a time of rapid change, globalisation and increasing instability.
China will also stake its claim in the Pacific Islands Forum.
The growing Chinese influence
Australia and New Zealand are weary of the increasing Chinese presence in the Pacific Islands and hence may join hands with the United States, India and France to ensure that Beijing does not have increased influence in the region.
As India is expanding its maritime reach to the Pacific Islands, the region falls organically into China’s maritime strategic thinking as a part of its oft-stated Island Chain Strategy.
Beijing largely benefited from the good relations it had with Washington during the Cold War, paving the way for its politico-military expansion in the Pacific Islands which began quietly in the early 1980s.
At present, India has permanent diplomatic postings only in Fiji and Papua New Guinea, but neither has military attaches.
India is expected to seek membership in the Melanesian Spearhead Group as a tactical move to counter China’s expansion in the South Pacific region.
Indo-Pacific Strategy Report
Strategic observers in India understand that the 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report released by the US Department of Defence did little to acknowledge the importance of the Pacific Islands within its conceptualisation of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP).
India’s Eastern Fleet has its operations through the Straits of Malacca but not in this region. For that to happen, India should have cooperation agreements with other maritime powers in the region which include the United States, Australia and New Zealand. It has somewhat gotten stuck in the southwest Pacific, whereas China’s maritime strategy is based on the three island chain strategies.
India’s expanding naval presence is influenced by its need to have sea lanes of communication. India feels threatened by China’s expanding presence in the Indo-Pacific, as the United States has its military commitments in other parts of the world, and Australia and New Zealand will not be in a position to challenge China’s expanding maritime profile.
From various points of view, Mr Modi’s visit to Papua New Guinea gains importance and his talks with the Pacific Islands leaders will charter a new diplomatic course for New Delhi. And as a leader of a country whose economy is the fastest growing in the free world, Mr Modi should be able to forge better ties with the South Pacific.
On that score, his visit will be reviewed from a fresh perspective.
Balaji Chandramohan is Indian Newslink Correspondent based in New Delhi.
Our Staff Reporter adds:
Chris Hipkins to meet Modi
New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will attend the Pacific Islands Forum meeting and will hold talks with Mr Modi, Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown.
He has also been invited to the India-Pacific Leaders lunch being hosted by Mr Modi.
“ I am looking forward to meeting with Prime Ministers Modi, Marape and Brown and with other regional leaders attending these significant Pacific gatherings,” he said.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken will attend on behalf of President Joe Biden, with his meeting schedule to be confirmed.
“While this visit to Port Moresby will be short, it is significant. It includes several opportunities to talk with Pacific leaders, which is important given that I was unable to attend the Pacific Islands Forum earlier this year because of Cyclone Gabrielle. I am pleased that Secretary of State Blinken will be present. Regional unity is critical to the resilience of the Pacific. It is excellent to see the United States engaging constructively with the Pacific Islands Forum members around issues of importance to our region, especially climate change,” Mr Hipkins said.
