The situation in Iraq is now very serious.
The country risks splitting into two with Jihadist group ISIS rebels moving uncomfortably close to Baghdad.
The startling military advance of ISIS has made the newly-elected Iraqi Government looking very vulnerable. Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, a Shia, has taken a sectarian approach, refusing to compromise with other parties, particularly minority Sunnis from the north, weakening his own power.
Mischievous meddling
Foolishly, he has reportedly meddled in the appointment of senior officers in the military, shifting the most competent and replacing them with less competent Shias.
That has weakened the army from the top down and resulted in its retreat from a vastly smaller force.
If the ISIS forces come into Baghdad, there will be mayhem. If segregated Sunni and Shia neighbourhoods within the city turn on each other, it could well turn into a bloodbath.
Like everyone, I would like to see the ISIS forces prevented from entering Baghdad and ejected from Iraq.
But the situation is delicate. Foreign troops on the ground in Iraq, including our own, are likely to do more harm than good.
If a military response is necessary, it should be led by Iraqis.
But a military solution must be swiftly followed up by real political reconciliation.
Political plan
That is where the US is playing a game of brinkmanship. It does not want to save the Iraqi Government with air strikes, only to have it continue its sectarian approach. It wants a political plan before it commits itself to military help.
New Zealand may need to offer humanitarian assistance, but once again through local organisations like the Red Crescent Society of Iraq. It is very hard to have boots on the ground there.
A few years ago, I headed the UN’s $2 billion construction programme in Iraq.
While I was in Iraq, there was often mayhem in the Iraqi Parliament with various groups arguing ferociously with each other.
But the great thing about it was that they were arguing inside Parliament, rather than outside with guns. The sooner we can get back to that and to genuine reconciliation and power-sharing between the minority Sunnis, Shias and Kurds, the better.
David Shearer is an elected Member of Parliament from Mt Albert. He is the Labour Party Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs.
