From our Leader in April 1, 2024 Digital Editon
Venkat Raman
Auckland, April 1, 2024
The new star of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party Annamalai Kuppuswamy is upbeat.
The Party’s Tamil Nadu Unit President told The Hindu during an interview on April 1, 2024 that the State will send a large number of BJP candidates to Lok Sabha (the Lower House of Parliament) and that his Party and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will have an unprecedented win with more than 400 seats in the 543-seat Assembly.
“In the last 10 years, even though MPs from Tamil Nadu were in Opposition in the Lok Sabha, there were a lot of good things that happened to the State. This time, the mood is to sync with the Central government. There will be a disproportionate increase in the number of candidates from NDA who will get elected. Local and State issues are becoming irrelevant because it is a national election. I am confident the NDA will record its best vote share and a large number of MPs from Tamil Nadu will be part of Modiji’s 400 MPs,” he said.
Understandably, Mr Annamalai is confident, probably because of the ‘Modi Wave’ that has swept across the Hindi heartland in recent Assembly elections and possibly because of the large crowds that Mr Modi has been drawing at public meetings.
Politics with a difference
But optimism alone is not sufficient to win an election. Tamil Nadu became the stronghold of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (led by C N Annadurai 1967 and later by M Karunanidhi, the current Chief Minister’s father) and with the ascendence to power by the All India Anna Dravida Munnertra Kazhagam (led by M G Ramachandran in 1977 and by his prodigy Jayalalitha Jayaraam in 1991). The State accounts for 39 seats and the BJP has thus far not won any. The neighbouring Union Territory of Puducherry (Pondicherry) has one Lok Sabha seat which has been won by local parties or the Indian National Congress since 1967.
(BJP Photo)
The Dravidian Movement is as deep-rotted in Tamil Nadu as casteism has been over the past 60 or more years. Apart from the DMK and AIADMK, there are a few other State Parties including the Naam Tamilar Katchi (founded by S P Adithanar in 1958 and now led by Seeman), Tamil Maanila Congress (by Moopanar in 1996), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (founded by Dr S Ramadoss in 1989), Kongu Munnetra Kazhagam (established by B S Ramasamy in 2001), Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (founded by the late actor Vijayakanth in 2005), Makkal Needhi Maiam (Kamal Hassan in 2018), Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (founded by actor Joseph Vijay in February 2024).
There are then national parties including the BJP, the Indian National Congress, the Community Party of India and the Community Party of India (Marxist).
The Modi Wave
In his ground report to the Hindustan Times (HT) a fortnight ago, Sutanu Guru, a political analyst and Executive Director of CVoter Research Foundation, which produces studies and opinion polls, said that he did not find much enthusiasm for the BJP in Tamil Nadu.
“Forget Ayodhya, the contrast with even Assam and North Bengal was starkly visible as the car moved from the Coimbatore airport towards the city. In central Uttar Pradesh and even Assam and North Bengal, the saffron flag was unmissable. It was visible in shops, homes, cars, autos and even two-wheelers. No such thing in southern Tamil Nadu. Quite surprisingly, one week or so after the author spent a few days in and around Coimbatore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled to address a rally and launch the BJP campaign in Tamil Nadu. Apart from a few die-hard supporters here and there, the author found no resonance and no enthusiasm among ordinary folks,” he said in the HT report.
Many sitting in New Delhi and gushing about the BJP state president K Annamalai will make a big difference in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would be dismayed by talking to people in Coimbatore, Tirupur, Madurai, Nagercoil and even Kanyakumari. It’s the Dravidian parties that rule the roost here, Mr Guru said.
One senior journalist based in Coimbatore who did not want to be named quipped: “Well, the chances of the BJP winning three to four seats in Tamil Nadu are as high as the Congress tally touching 150 Lok Sabha seats this time. Sure, miracles can happen. But really doubt.”
Modi creates a momentum
Over the past three years, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has created momentum for his BJP in Tamil Nadu and his visits to various cities, towns and villages in the State have captured news headlines. Mr Modi spoke of his dreams of making Tamil Nadu the Defence Corridor and Aerospace Hub of India in his interview with Thanthi TV on March 31.
While these developments may spell good fortunes for Mr Modi, his Party and the BJP on April 19 when polling is held in Tamil Nadu, elections are as unpredictable as the weather.
BJP hopefuls say that the ensuing one will be different.
The Economist was on a tour of Tamil Nadu with Mr Annamalai in February.
In its report, the publication said that the BJP is widely expected to win again and has set a target of 370 seats. Some of those it aims to add are in the North and West.
“But it needs to do better in the South in order to fully consolidate its control over the country. In 2019, it won 29 of 129 Lok Sabha seats representing the five Southern States of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. In three of those states, it won none. Among BJP voters nationally, only 11% were in the south in 2019.
“A second motive for the BJP’s emphasis on the South is its strategy to displace its main rival, the Congress Party, as India’s only truly national political force. Although Congress no longer dominates the South as it did in its early years, it won state elections in Karnataka and Telangana last year. More than half its Lok Sabha seats are in the South. And while it competes for local votes with ruling parties in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, they are all in the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.
From all points of view therefore, while the BJP is expected to win most of the seats in the heartland of the country (North and West) and secure more than 400 seats with its partners in the National Democratic Alliance, its performance in Tamil Nadu remains to be seen.
