The PM-FM Combination is formidable and complimentary

And we wait and see how the Luxon-Willis combo develops

In our system of government, the Prime Minister is often described as ‘primus inter pares,’ the first among equals, or the Chair of the Board when it comes to leading Cabinet and the wider team of government MPs.

The Finance Minister, correspondingly, is the effective Chief Executive, overseeing and pulling together all the strands of the government to make sure that the government’s objectives are achieved.

The role of Finance Minister

While the public focus is naturally on the Prime Minister, who, in the modern environment, is expected to front for the government on everything, the Finance Minister is never far behind.

Although the Prime Minister is the public face of the government, the Finance Minister is constantly making sure that the government’s policies are properly coordinated and responsibly fiscally managed to its best political and economic advantage.

At Budget time each year, the Finance Minister gets to put it all on display, and it is no coincidence that Budgets are often seen as the sole work of the Minister of Finance, rather than a collaborative effort by the Prime Minister or the rest of the government.

Stereotypically, Finance Ministers are normally expected to effortlessly quote endless financial statistics, percentages, and arcane acronyms, and always appear far more knowing and world-wise than anyone else. They invariably adopt over time a miserly persona, even more, profligate Ministers like the incumbent like to give off the sense that it is ‘their’ hard-earned money they are spending, not the government’s, and certainly not that provided to them by the long-suffering taxpayer.

The likes of Muldoon

Some Finance Ministers have been mercurial. Sir Robert Muldoon liked being described as an ‘economic wizard,’ even if his overall record suggested otherwise. Others like Sir Roger Douglas have been bold reformers, while more steady hands like Sir Michael Cullen and Sir Bill English have achieved major changes over a longer period.

Some, like Sir Arnold Nordmeyer, are remembered for the wrong reasons (the 1958 Black Budget) while others have simply been forgotten altogether.

It goes without saying that a strong and competent Finance Minister is a key component of a modern, successful government. Equally important is the partnership forged between a Prime Minister and Finance Minister. The relationship between the two must be close and supportive, with each having and showing complete confidence in the work of the other.

The PM-FM equation

When the partnership between David Lange and Sir Roger Douglas, which had been so successful, broke down, the demise of that government began. Similarly, when it became clear that Jim Bolger and Ruth Richardson were moving in different directions, she had to go.

On the other hand, the strong relationship between Helen Clark and Sir Michael Cullen was a key component in that government’s longevity, as was the link between Sir John Key and Sir Bill English in the last National-led government. So far, the partnership between the present Prime Minister and her Minister of Finance has looked strong and unified.

Often, although not always, the bond between the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister is reinforced by the latter also being the Deputy Prime Minister. That is the case at present, and applied with other long-term governments, like those of Helen Clark and Sir Michael Cullen, Sir John Key and Sir Bill English, and even back to Peter Fraser and Sir Walter Nash.

However, only a handful of Finance Ministers– Nash, Muldoon, and English – have gone on to become Prime Ministers.

The choice of Nicola Willis

Against that background, the choice of Nicola Willis to be National’s new finance spokesperson to replace the departing Simon Bridges is a sensible one.

Bridges’ sudden retirement is a blow to National – he was beginning to look like a potential Finance Minister in the Cullen/English mode and will therefore be hard to replace.

Nevertheless, Willis has the capacity to step up quickly and seamlessly to her new role, and she has many other advantages besides.

As National’s Deputy Leader since late last year, she has quickly built a close relationship with Party Leader Christopher Luxon, and the pairing is already becoming established in the public mind. Her elevation to Finance Spokesperson should reinforce that and will confirm her authority over her Caucus colleagues, which will become more important as the Party goes about preparing (and costing) its election policies for next year.

Valuable experience

Experience working for Fonterra, alongside Luxon’s own corporate background (he used to run an airline, you know) means that she will be very much at ease in the corporate boardrooms that the Finance Minister needs to face.

Her time previously as a leading adviser to Sir John Key when he was Prime Minister will have given her a strong sense of the political challenges involved in running a government and implementing its policy programme. She will be able to use these skills to good advantage with her Caucus colleagues over the next year or so, as well as with Luxon who, it needs to be remembered, is still very inexperienced in such matters.

As National’s Housing Spokesperson, Willis demonstrated a passion for the portfolio and an ability to talk with the public in very clear and understandable terms about the issues as she saw them and the changes she would like to make. She should be able to use these skills and experiences to talk about National Party’s ‘cost of living crisis campaign’ and wider approach to economic policy in a way that seems real and relatable for people.

Willis is unlikely to fall into the trap most Finance Minister and finance spokespeople do of relying almost exclusively on arid statistics to bolster her argument.

Formidable opponent

Her clashes with the current Finance Minister Grant Robertson will be fascinating. They know each other well, having both stood in the Wellington Central electorate for the last two elections. Robertson is teetering on the verge of taking on the miserly persona of Finance Ministers of the past, and given Willis’ unashamedly liberal credentials, is likely to find her a more difficult opponent to pigeon-hole than the much more conservative Bridges. While the exchanges between them will be courteous, Willis is unshakeable, and Robertson will need to be careful that her “working mum with four kids” approach does not get away from him.

When Christopher Luxon became leader of the National Party there were many critics of his social conservatism who felt that would hamper his ability to present the National Party in a modern and progressive light. So far, as the polls strongly show, he has defied that expectation, even if there is still a long way to go until the next election. His appointment of Nicola Willis as Finance Spokesperson continues down the path he has set.

Just as Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson were Labour’s political generational change, Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis are doing likewise for National.

Luxon’s next challenge having set out National’s furniture the way he would like, is to show how he and Willis are going to use it. Their first task is to be sure that none of their other colleagues decides to knock down a table or two along the way.

Peter Dunne was a Minister of the Crown under the Labour and National-led governments from December 2008 and September 2017. He lives in Wellington.