Hassan Vally
Melbourne, Australia, October 3, 2020
Jacinda Ardern with Scott Morrison in Sydney, Australia on February 28, 2020 (PMC Photo)
Editor’s Note: The announcement of the Trans-Tasman bubble followed a telephone conversation between Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern with her Australian counterpart Scott Morrison. The thought of such a bubble has remained a possibility for the past three months or so but the onset of second wave of Coronavirus held back the decision. The facility is currently open only to New Zealanders to visit Australia but they would have to undergo quarantine regulations on their return to New Zealand.
New Zealanders will soon be able to travel to New South Wales and the Northern Territory, thanks to a limited travel bubble, announced yesterday (October 2, 2020).
From October 16, 2020, people from New Zealand will be able to travel to NSW or the NT without having to undergo a quarantine period, as long as they have not been in a designated Covid-19 hotspot in New Zealand in the previous 14 days.
But the deal does not apply to other states and territories in Australia.
And it does not work the other way: Australians cannot travel to New Zealand yet.
https://twitter.com/1DonB/status/1311878608223313921?s=20
Why only NSW and the NT?
When considering opening up to allow New Zealanders, Australia had to ask, what risk does New Zealand pose to us?
Right now, the risk is very small.
New Zealand has been renowned for its success in controlling Covid-19.
Currently the country has 43 active cases. And of all confirmed and probable cases, it is recorded to date, only 5% have been locally acquired from an unknown source.
So, if you live in NSW or the NT, there is no need to be concerned about the infection being imported with this arrangement.
As for why the deal only applies to these two jurisdictions, we do not yet have a lot of detail.
But reports indicate the issue of opening up to New Zealand came up at the last national cabinet meeting, and NSW and the NT were the only states to accept the offer at that point.
It would not appear New Zealand singled them out.
It is unclear why the other states and territories have not agreed yet, but we can expect they will follow at some point.
The first step
In announcing the deal, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack speculated that South Australia would be “the next cab off the rank.”
It is good news for Australians and New Zealanders.
The Trans-Tasman travel bubble has been on our collective radar since much earlier in the pandemic. This represents the first step to having a two-way travel bubble with New Zealand — and perhaps, eventually, an even broader bubble.
This deal will provide a boost to economy and trade, could kick start tourism in these states, and see family and friends reunited. It could also allow New Zealand to serve as a link between Australia and the Pacific, by providing a pathway for Pacific Islanders to enter NSW and the NT for work.
But it does not make much sense to have a one-way bubble.
The benefits would be significantly greater, for both parties, if the bubble went both ways.
So, what is holding New Zealand back from accepting Australians?
A question of hotspots
While NSW has had low levels of community transmission in recent weeks, the NT has not had a locally acquired Covid-19 case for months.
So, you would expect the risk of spreading coronavirus with travel the other way, from NSW and the NT to New Zealand, would also be small.
But it makes sense, and is sensible, for New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to be cautious about opening up to a country where there are still some pockets of community transmission.
The problem, however, may not be so much in the fact a small amount of community transmission is occurring. It may be that there is still a problem in Australia around defining hotspots.
There has been confusion around what constitutes a hotspot in Australia for some time, and there is still no agreement on a national definition.
Comfort and confidence
One could speculate that for New Zealand to feel confident to open up to Australia, it needs to feel comfortable it can exclude people from hotspot areas, and this requires a clear agreement on the definition of a hotspot.
The prospect of a two-way bubble should provide impetus for the government to get the hotspot issue ironed out.
Travel bubbles must be fluid
We have seen travel bubbles in other parts of the world during the pandemic.
For example, various countries in Europe have banded together in this way.
But with many countries experiencing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, we are starting to see how fragile these arrangements can be.
Importantly, inclusion in a bubble has to depend on all parties keeping control of the virus. Travel bubbles have to be fluid, flexible and responsive to any outbreaks.
Hassan Vally is Associate Professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia. The above article and pictures have been published under Creative Commons Licence.
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