Craig McCulloch
Wellington, October 17, 2024
Analysis – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has made the most of his first East Asia Summit (EAS), facilitating Facetime and fostering friendships, but the harder ask will be now translating that to tangible results.
Mr Luxon was expected back in New Zealand on Saturday morning, having wrapped a whirlwind two days in Laos which included a much-anticipated sit-down with India’s PM Narendra Modi.
He also held talks with the leaders of Canada, Australia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, and brushed shoulders with power players from China and the United States.
Speaking to RNZ in an end-of-trip interview, Mr Luxon said such encounters made the long travel distance worthwhile and helped prove the value of attending such forums.
“It is all the conversations that happen,” he said. “You have the formal bilateral meetings, but actually it’s [also] the conversations in the leaders’ lounge before you go into an event, or before a dinner kicks off.”
Free Trade Agreement
Most attention has focused on the Modi bilateral which Mr Luxon named as a highlight, pointing out the Indian leader held only one other such meeting, with Japan, during his brief time in Laos.
Mr Luxon emerged optimistic about his pre-election pledge to secure a free trade deal with India this term, a commitment which has been characterised as “ambitious” or “implausible” depending on one’s generosity.
A previous attempt – initiated under Sir John Key – stalled about a decade ago, and formal negotiations have yet to resume.
Labour’s David Parker earlier told RNZ the commitment was simply not credible.
But pressed on the matter, Mr Luxon is defiant.
“We are determined to do it,” he told RNZ. “We will get it done.”
His fervour is belied somewhat by his acknowledgement that first New Zealand must deepen the two countries’ connection, which he claims went cold under Labour’s tenure.
“You always start with the relationship as the foundation … you do not go straight to the transactional,” Mr Luxon said.
“[You cannot] just go through the front door talking about a free trade agreement.”
That, of course, is precisely what the trade experts said when Mr Luxon first made the bold proclamation last year.
In fairness, the relationship-building has ramped up this term, with Trade Minister Todd McClay visiting India three times and meeting his Indian counterpart six times since taking office.
The exercise must now go into hyperdrive: Mr Luxon has acknowledged negotiations will need to begin next year at the latest if there is to be any hope of meeting the goal.
As well as the formal sit down, Mr Luxon also made a point of engaging with Mr Modi when seated together at the gala dinner, and again, briefly at the start of the actual summit on Friday.
“My job is to build personal rapport and relationships with the leaders individually,” Mr Luxon said.
“The challenge for New Zealand as a small country is … they don’t need you, as such … you don’t have share of wallet, so you have got to create share of mind.”
Mr Luxon said he intended to keep up the momentum by bringing a “big delegation” along with him to New Delhi early next year.
East Asia Summit
In recent years, commentators have questioned the influence of the EAS, highlighting the absence of US President Joe Biden two years running.
Mr Luxon said the summit itself was “very very very useful” for assessing “the pulse of the region” in a “concentrated span of time” and he reiterated the importance of the Indo-Pacific to New Zealand.
He said the EAS offered New Zealand “disproportionate weight” in the conversation, as one of 18 members including heavyweights like the US, China and Russia.
But were those larger countries paying attention to the conversation? On that, Mr Luxon declined to engage.
Asked what substantive difference the summit had made to the various world crises, Mr Luxon pointed to the genuine effort among members to resolve the Myanmar crisis.
“A lot of the conversation was how could [ASEAN] take a more consistent, deliberative approach – and a better-resourced approach – to actually getting action happening.
“They were saying… what are we going to do? And do we need to step up our engagement in a more meaningful way?”
The packed schedule of international summits carries on through the rest of the year.
Mr Luxon will soon attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa, and then the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Peru.
Both occasions will offer further opportunities for Facetime, friendships, and hopefully, results.
Craig McCulloch is the Deputy Political Editor at Radio New Zealand. The above report and pictures have been published under a Special Agreement with www.rnz.co.nz.
