I arrived in Baghdad on a Royal Jordanian flight from Amman a few months ago to evaluate the progress of the transition from US military to Iraqi civilian control.
The US military offered to host my trip as an academic and advisor to the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Center.
The flight was full with expatriate contractors and, to my surprise, there were many Iraqis coming back home after fleeing due to the violence of war.
The Iraqi government had already reclaimed control of the airport. There was not a coalition member in site.
Entry visas were available for visitors, the airport staff were friendly and the place was clean. Although unexpected, there was definite progress. The Iraqis were operating the airport successfully and managing other parts of the country as well. The transition was clearly underway.
The question was, “when will the civilian government fully stabilise the country and provide for its security?’
I visited several provincial development teams led by US civilian leaders protected by designated military teams. Iraqis were members of these civilian teams, while local Governors, businessmen and ministry officials participated in planning and helping them focus on economic development and rebuilding infrastructure.
Violence continues
My impression is that Iraq will eventually become a stable and functioning country in the region, although it was clear that not all dangers had subsided.
Unfortunately, violent attacks continue pushing Iraqi deaths over the last seven years higher than the 50,000 estimate that already exist, begging the question, whether the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq was the correct step.
I travelled everywhere in armoured vehicles with a military escort wearing bulletproof vest and Kevlar helmet. It was clear that security was still tenuous.
My conversations with Iraqi provincial leaders confirmed that they too were apprehensive about what would happen after the US withdrawal.
Many provincial governors wanted the US forces to remain in Iraq. They feared that the Iraqi military was still not capable of providing security against external threats. They did not seem to be very worried about Al Qaeda, which they described as weak; the governors were concerned about what they called ‘the militias.’
Militia menace
Most Iraqis fear the rising groups of militias who continue to terrorise communities and prevent progress in governance. These groups, both Shiite and Sunni, are at the heart of the continued violence across the country.
The Sunni militias, most notably the Sahwa, also known as the ‘Awakening Councils’ or ‘Sons of Iraq,’ were directly supported by the US military during the surge. They now feel neglected by their benefactors and focus on challenging a weak Shiite-led government taking advantage of the country’s inability to provide basic protections to its citizens.
Shiite militias, like the Badr Organisation and the Mehdi Army, are known to fight to protect the Government. Iraqis trying to work toward a stable and normal life fear them both,
Democratic pains
Unfortunately, much of the hostilities are possible because Iraqis continue to grapple with forming the national government limiting its ability to protect its citizens.
When I arrived in Baghdad, the elections were still being contested. Four months later, there is no internal agreement on who should be head of the government, which is perhaps the growing pains of democracy, but continues to make the security situation fragile.
Nevertheless, as per the ‘US-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement,’ thousands of American military personnel streamed across the border to Kuwait, where they would await transport and eventually come home.
But 50,000 troops will remain to “advice and assist” Iraqi military and police forces so they can maintain security within their own nation. By forming a government, Iraqi leaders will be able to take advantage of these troops to assist them in rebuilding their infrastructure while continuing to move toward economic progress.
These troops can continue to train security forces and police to maintain internal security, disarm and contain the spread of the militias.
A new government can also expand the ‘Status of Forces Agreement,’ allowing US military advisors to remain in order to ensure Iraq can protect itself from external invaders and influence.
Iran is a major concern here.
Operation New Dawn
The true test as to whether Iraq will move forward begins now with what the US military calls the beginning of “Operation New Dawn.” This operation, which began on September 1, “coincides with a changeover from a military to a civilian lead in Iraq; the name was chosen to reflect the reduced role of US troops.
The US however, remains challenged with wartime transitions often leaving countries in chaotic conflict for years to come. It would serve America, the region and the Iraqi Government if there are defined and mutually recognised steps to ensure Iraqi security in the face of insurgencies.
The US could help Iraq to begin the incorporation of the militia groups with a spotlight on disarmament. Further, the civilian transition groups can help to begin some reconciliation activities beginning with sectarian community work and then broadening it to multi-sectarian participation. Either way, these initiatives must be Iraqi-led with US support to create space for change.
The future remains to be seen. Any success requires the immediate formation of the Iraqi government. Only then can the Iraqis move forward, begin healing themselves, moving towards economic progress and ultimately creating an Iraq that is safe, sovereign and self-reliant.
Patricia DeGennaro is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Department of Politics and a Senior Fellow at the World Policy Institute. Source: Global Expert Finder, New York.
