Statistics New Zealand projects shape of things to come
Venkat Raman
The population of people of Indian origin is slated to grow significantly during the six-year period covering 2013 to 2018.
Specific figures are not available, but Indians will be the part of the Asian Group, whose population will rise to 1.4 million in 2038 accounting for an increase of 22%.
The population of people grouped as ‘European and Other,’ will also rise, but their overall share will decline from 74% to 66% by 2038.
Growth of Asians significant
Statistics New Zealand said on October 3, 2017 that Asians are among the four largest ethnic population groups that are growing.
The broad Asian ethnic group will increase the most over the period.
“This group’s population is projected to rise from 540,000 in 2013 to between 1.2 million and 1.4 million in 2038. The Pacific ethnic group is also projected to rise significantly, from 340,000 in 2013 to between 530,000 to 650,000 in 2038. The broad Asian ethnic group’s share is projected to be higher than the Maori ethnic share by 2023, and is projected to be 22% of the total population by 2038. The Maori ethnic share is projected to rise to 18% by 2038,” Statistics New Zealand said.
Total Population growth
New Zealand’s total population is projected to grow from 4.4 million in 2013 to between 5.2 million to 6.3 million in 2038.
The population of Auckland region is projected to exceed 2 million in the early 2030s, up from 1.5 million in 2013.
Population Statistics Senior Manager Peter Dolan said that the ‘European or Other’ population is growing, but not as fast as other ethnic populations.
“The Maori, Asian, and Pacific populations are growing faster because of their younger age structures, combined with higher birth rates or migration,” he said.
The proportion of New Zealanders identifying with Maori, Asian, and Pacific ethnicities is projected to rise in all 16 regions over the same period.
In contrast, the ‘European or Other’ ethnic share is projected to fall in 14 of the 16 regions over the 2013-38 period.
European numbers fall
Although the population of ‘European or Other’ ethnic group will rise from 3.3 million in 2013 to between 3.6 million and 4 million in 2038, the ethnic share of this group is projected to fall from 75% of New Zealand’s population in 2013 to 66% in 2038.
The Maori population is projected to surpass 1 million by 2038, with growth in all regions.
Four Broad Groups
The four broad population groups are Asian, Maori, Pacific and European or Other. Statistics New Zealand does not release population projections for the Middle Eastern, Latin American and African ethnicities, due to the large size of these groups.
The key projections include:
The broad Asian ethnic group will increase the most, from 541,300 in 2013 to more than 1.2 million in 2038 (an increase of more than 122%)
The ‘European or Other’ population is growing, but not as fast as other ethnic populations
The Maori, Asian, and Pacific populations are growing faster because of their younger age structures, combined with higher birth rates or migration
The overall ethnic share of ‘European or Other’ is projected to fall from 75% of New Zealand’s population in 2013 to 66% in 2038.
Projections for Auckland
The key points for ‘Superdiverse’ Auckland include:
The broad Asian ethnic group in Auckland will increase the most, from 348,000 in 2013 to 788,000 in 2038 (an increase of about 126%)
The Pacific ethnic group is also projected to rise from 227,000 in 2013 to 367,000 in 2038 (an increase of about 62%)
The Maori population is projected to increase from 169,800 in 2013 to 257,600 in 2038 (an increase of about 52%)
The European or Other ethnic group’s population will grow from 886,400 in 2013 to 1,057,600 in 2038 (an increase of about 19%)
