As New Zealand becomes more geriatric, services get stretched
Praneeta Mahajan
Hamilton, June 24, 2024
In the year ended December 2023, New Zealand experienced significant demographic shifts, with both live births and deaths recording notable declines.
According to Stats New Zealand, there were 56,277 live births, a decrease from 58,707 in the previous year. The number of deaths also dropped, with 37,623 deaths registered, down from 38,835 in the previous year.
Low Fertility Rates
Perhaps the most striking revelation from the report is the record-low total fertility rate (TFR), which fell to 1.52 births per woman. This figure not only marks the lowest TFR ever recorded in New Zealand but also sits well below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, the level needed for a population to replace itself in the long term without immigration.
The TFR is a crucial measure that reflects the average number of live births a woman would have over her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates. The drop from 1.65 in the previous year to 1.52 is significant, highlighting an ongoing trend of declining fertility. Experts suggest that this decline could be influenced by a variety of socio-economic factors, including changing attitudes towards family size, economic uncertainties, and increasing access to and use of contraception.
The data also revealed that New Zealand experienced its lowest natural increase in population in 80 years. The natural increase, calculated as the difference between the number of births and deaths, is a key indicator of population growth. The diminishing gap between births and deaths underscores the demographic challenges facing New Zealand, as the country grapples with an ageing population and lower birth rates.
Infant mortality rises
The report also highlighted a slight increase in the infant mortality rate, 3.8 deaths per 1000 live births from 3.5 in the previous year. Despite this uptick, the infant mortality rate remains lower than the 4.2 per 1000 recorded in the year ended March 2022, indicating some long-term improvements in child health and medical care.
Age-Specific Fertility Trends
A detailed analysis of age-specific fertility rates provides further insight into the overall decline in births. For women aged 20-44, there was a 4.3% decrease in the number of births, equating to 2445 fewer births compared to the previous year.
This decline is particularly notable given that the population of women in this age group increased by 3.9%.
The fertility rate for women aged 20-24 fell by five births per 1000, down to 44 births per 1000. Similarly, for women aged 25-29, the rate decreased by seven births per 1000, reaching 80 births per 1000. Women aged 30-34 also experienced a decline, with the fertility rate dropping by seven births per 1000 to 98 births per 1000. The trend continued among women aged 35-39, where the rate fell by four births per 1000, resulting in 58 births per 1000. Even women aged 40-44 saw a slight reduction, with the fertility rate decreasing by one birth per 1000 to 13 births per 1000.
Interestingly, there was no change in the fertility rates for the youngest and oldest age groups. Females aged 15-19 maintained a rate of 11 births per 1000, while those aged 45 and over continued to have just under one live birth per 1000. These stable rates in the youngest and oldest age brackets contrast sharply with the declines seen in the prime childbearing years.
Implications for the Future
The ongoing decline in New Zealand’s fertility rate and the accompanying demographic trends pose significant challenges for the future. An ageing population, combined with fewer young people, could lead to labour shortages, increased pressure on healthcare and social services, and potential economic slowdowns. Policymakers may need to consider strategies to support families and encourage higher birth rates, such as improving access to affordable childcare, offering financial incentives, and promoting work-life balance.
Sociologist and Massey University Emeritus Professor Paul Spoonley outlined the broader societal implications.
“The fact that the major milestones in New Zealand lives are shifting has serious implications for the future of the country. These changes affect not just population growth but also economic stability, social services, and community structures. We need to adapt our policies and planning to meet these evolving needs,” he said.
Moreover, the decline in natural population increase underscores the importance of immigration as a driver of population growth. New Zealand may need to revisit its immigration policies to ensure that it can maintain a healthy and balanced population structure in the coming decades.
Praneeta Mahajan is an Indian Newslink reporter based in Hamilton.
