Venkat Raman
Auckland, December 13, 2023
The New Zealand government is likely to follow the Australian example of turning down the immigration tap as runaway growth begins to strain resources.
Figures released on Monday, December 11, 2023 placed net migration at 128,900, a staggering record, which Prime Minister Christopher Luxon described as ‘unsustainable.’
Statistics New Zealand said that the total number of migrant arrivals during the year to October (2023) was 245,600 (another record) and that the total number of migrant departures was 116,700. The net immigration gain of 128,900 comprised mainly non-citizens from India, China, Fiji, the Philippines and South Africa.
According to Statistics New Zealand, the net loss included 44,500 New Zealand citizens who left our shores, mainly to Australia.
Mr Luxon agreed that one of the reasons for the high number of arrivals was the closure of our borders during the Covid-19 pandemic but blamed the previous Labour government for inept management.
“We have inherited a system that is complete hash. There was no plan,” he told Radio New Zealand.
Mr Luxon said that the government will be working with Immigration New Zealand to make sure that there are audits and checks in place to manage the migrant numbers.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand warned as it held the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.5% last month that the surge in migration posed threats to inflation by stoking demand in the economy.
Massey University Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley agreed that the current net migration is unsustainable and advised the government to evaluate the effects of such high numbers on the ability of our public services and infrastructure facilities to cope with such high demand.
He said the new figures represented the highest level of net migration thus far in New Zealand.
Professor Spoonley said that commentators were questioning at the beginning of the year whether New Zealand would ever experience the arrival of migrants.
“We have now seen the reverse. The numbers are quite extraordinary. At the current rate of net migration, our population will grow at about 2.5%. This will increase the demand for all sorts of services. We are already struggling to match the current infrastructure to the existing population. The increase in population, which is driven by immigration will add to the pressure,” he said.
The Australian move
The Australian government announced new measures to check immigration on December 11, 2023.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that the government will increase the Minimum Language requirements for international students, apply more restrictions to stop onshore ‘visa hopping’ and reduce the number of other arrivals.
Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neill said that Australia’s net migration level peaked last financial year at 510,000 and is forecast to fall to more normal levels, down to 375,000 next year and 250,000 in 2025.
She said that the changes to the migration system announced and implemented earlier this year are already putting downward pressure on net migration.
Along with restrictions on international student and graduate visas, the government will also create a new temporary ‘Skills in Demand Visa’ to attract highly skilled workers who have the “potential to grow the skills and expertise of the Australian workforce.”
Listen to this audio clip from RNZ
Labour rejects criticism
Labour MP and former Associate Immigration Minister Phil Twyford agreed that immigration should be reset but blamed Mr Luxon and the Party for inconsistency.
“The National Party was constantly berating our Labour government for having closed the border to protect New Zealanders against Covid-19. Mr Luxon was saying that we should let more people into the country. It was a never-ending chorus,” he said.
BusinessNZ Advocacy Director Catherine Beard cautioned the government from making hasty decisions, saying that the current high level of migration could be a temporary phenomenon.
“Some of those high numbers relate to family reunification, with a large number of people arriving on Family Visas. Therefore, net migration may actually go down in the future,” she said.
Twyford told Morning Report New Zealand experienced an acute skills shortage after the pandemic.
Duke Partners Managing Director Phil O’Reilly called for a robust immigration strategy.
“The key is to make sure that the system is nimble and takes into account the needs of the labour market, highly skilled migrants and potentially also low-skilled people. We need people to pour beer at Christmas Parties in Queenstown and they will not be high-skilled workers. The government should consult the business community,” he said.
Mr O’Reily said that the government should consult with the business community before changing the immigration settings.
“It is true that high net immigration will impact our infrastructure and public services but it is migrants who help in building and maintaining the infrastructure. We need a balanced system that ensures that employers have access to the right skills, and invest in training,” he said.
According to Dr Spoonley, most political parties, especially National, Labour, ACT and New Zealand First were in broad agreement over the country’s immigration policy.
But New Zealand’s demography is changing and that factors such as the declining fertility rates and our ageing population should be considered.
“We need a free and frank national debate on immigration,” he said.
