From our Leader (Digital Edition May 1, 2024)
Venkat Raman
Auckland, April 30, 2024
General Elections in India will enter the third stage on May 7 in a seven-phase system that will go on until June 1, 2024 with the results expected four days thereafter.
While the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win with a comfortable majority, there is wide speculation over the total number of seats that it is likely to gain and the share of its 37 alliance partners.
BJP has been campaigning on its key slogan ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ (400 seats this time), suggesting that it will win 400 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha and that its alliance members will gain at least 40 or 50 seats. Far-fetched it may seem, no ardent follower of the BJP will allow a healthy discussion on the subject. They believe that the number of seats is also a ‘Modi Guarantee,’ which means ‘When Modi says, it will happen.’
The average voter turnout in the first two phases has been lower than the previous general elections (2019 and 2014) at about 61%, the reason for which has been attributed to the scorching heat in most centres and the choice of Polling Day.
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Rising rhetoric and tempers
The second phase has been deemed important with many celebrity candidates in the fray- Rahul Gandhi (Wayanad), Shashi Tharoor (Thiruvananthapuram), Hema Malini (Mathura), Arun Govil (Meerut) and Tejasvi Surya (Bangalore South).
India’s electoral system allows rallies by candidates and politicians although polling is being held over several weeks. Tempers have been rising at most of the rallies with an all-gloves-off approach with multiple parties flaunting accusations on their adversaries. Attacks have been virulent and vituperative.
Mr Modi fired a salvo during his campaign speech in Banswara, Rajasthan on April 21, 2024, when he called Muslims ‘infiltrators.’ Referring to a speech made by former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh in 2006, Mr Modi said that according to Dr Singh, Muslims have the first right to the country’s property, “which means they will take away your hard-earned money and give to the infiltrators.”
Congress Party Supremo Rahul Gandhi criticised Mr Modi for his ‘hate speech,’ but added fuel to the fire by saying that his Party, if elected to power, will conduct a financial survey and decide on redistribution of wealth. But he later backtracked saying that it would be just an exercise to gauge the extent of injustice done.
Media remains silent
The media went quiet on Mr Modi’s comment (of course, a few supported his views against Muslims) but went to town with that of Mr Gandhi, slamming him for his ‘leftist philosophy.’ None of them questioned if the Moral Code set by the Election Commission was breached. The Commission, after three days of silence, issued a notice ‘seeking clarification’ from the respective Presidents of the BJP and Congress, breaking away from the norm of addressing such breaches to the candidates concerned.
The unfortunate aspect of all this is the general opinion that BJP will win with a convincing majority although ‘400 Plus’ as it claims may be too ambitious to reach. Pollsters suggest that the NDA will secure 388 seats, which will be an extraordinary improvement. In the 2019 general elections, the BJP secured 303 seats while its alliance members brought 50 seats.
Congress in trouble
In contrast, the Congress is in dire straits, with its Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance in tatters. It is a pity that the Party, which won 414 seats on its own account (out of 516 member Lok Sabha) in 1984, secured only 52 seats in the 2019 general election, failing to qualify for the role of Leader of the Opposition.
An Economist report has said that the Grand Old Party (Congress) is now forecast to get just 21% of the votes in this general election.
“To put up a stronger fight, it has teamed up with 27 other parties in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. Still, it is unlikely to make a dent: the average projection sees the alliance winning 118 seats. Mr Gandhi’s newfound zeal has almost certainly come too late to swing this year’s result. But the hope among Congress loyalists is that it will help to revitalise the Party in the years ahead and to position Mr Gandhi as a more serious challenger in 2029.”
However, it is indubitable that Congress has become a dysfunctional Party, with too many infights and scandals to bear. A third consecutive defeat will certainly lead to further cracks in the ranks with more fallouts and disgruntlement. That would unleash a tsunami of defections or at least dissent, leading to the ouster of the Gandhi family.
That could signal a change in India’s politics and create a level playing field.
A strong opposition is vital for India’s polity, without which the country risks slipping into a single-party rule, which in turn will breed autocracy.
No one, including the BJP, would want such a state of affairs; for, a government that cannot be held to account would incur public wrath eventually.
