With the conclusion of the Rugby World Cup, New Zealanders will turn their attention to politics, discuss their opinions on issues of interest on talkback shows, and post their comments on websites and blogs, in addition to writing letters to editors of newspapers.
If the current opinion polls are any indication, National should be able to return to power and govern on its own, although its leader John Key is keen on inclusive politics and participative Government, with ACT, Maori Party and United Future taken into the equation. With John Banks, the only hope for ACT lagging in opinion polls in the Epsom electorate, ACT may not make the cut.
That would leave Maori Party, with possibly five seats and United Future with one seat to join the National Government.
However, the constitution of the next Council of Ministers could spell a change if Mr Key invites the Green Party to join. The latter, assured of at least nine seats, could make a difference to the country’s governance.
The Labour Party continues to languish, partly due an unfriendly (and biased) mainstream media and partly due to its perceived lacklustre leadership. A bounce back at the General Election on November 26, 2011 would require a miracle, which the voting public may not deliver.
Although voting is not compulsory in terms of the existing provisions of the New Zealand Electoral Act, the country has been consistently witnessing a high turnover at the polling booths for the several years.
Electoral Commission statistics show that New Zealanders are keen to exercise their franchise with a high percentage of votes polled in 1987 (89.1%), 1990 (85.2%), 1993 (85.2%), 1996 (88.3%), 1999 (84.8%), 2002 (77%), 2005 (80.9%) and 2008 (79.46%).
Elections have always excited people, although some surveys showed apathy among the younger members of the society, which is likely to reverse this year, given the fact both Labour and National have introduced a number of new faces as their electoral candidates and on their lists.
The Indian community, which is likely to account for about 50,000 votes throughout the country, has thus far been somewhat indifferent towards politics, largely supporting Labour. In a number of constituencies which account for a large number of Indian population, especially Mt Albert and Mt Roskill in Auckland, the winning candidates (both from Labour) have drawn their strength from the community.
But this should not be interpreted to mean that the community holds the key to electoral results; far from it; while the Indian vote is important, it is not critical to any party in any constituency.
It is often argued that Indians will not vote if they feel that an election does not offer a chance of real change, what is termed a ‘mobilising election.’ Such change can come either from the party in power or from the one that aspires to get to the beehive.
In theory, votes should be decisive. People are consulted, a new government is formed; the losers accept the result and political discussions begin again on a new basis and the government and the nation carry on until it is time to poll again.
Elections, in fact, are just one part of the network of institutions (like honest courts) that need to be in place for democracy to work properly.
Without those institutions, voting sometimes seems, at least in the short term, to make things worse.
