The General Election held on November 26, 2011 was run against the backdrop of a deteriorating global economy.
Labour Party’s main campaign message of more borrowing and spending did not resonate well with voters.
It appeared to be more of a threat to our future, than the promise of a better way.
Its negative campaigning drove voters in search of alternatives, bringing the worst rout since MMP began, as voters abandoned them largely for the Greens.
Greens have been the star performer of the 2011 Election Campaign. They have successfully shifted their brand from the radical left positioning epitomised by some former MPs to the centre ground of politics occupied by Labour.
The major surprise was of course the return of New Zealand First.
Written off by the media and demonised by many politicians, Winston Peters has been working under the radar to spread his message around the country over the last three years.
In looking at the Maori vote, as with ACT, it appears that their infighting has turned supporters away. The Maori and Mana parties between them gained only 47,000 votes from the 230,000 enrolled on the Maori electoral roll. In fact, these two parties split the radical Maori sovereignty vote in two.
In the lead up to an election, the polls play a major role in indicating where voter support is moving. To some extent, government funding for campaign purposes is tied to how the parties are ranking in the polls, and some media networks use the polls to restrict the appearance of low ranking minor party leaders in their televised debates. As a result, political polls can have a dramatic influence on the outcome of an election.
Economic Commentator and NZCPR Director Frank Newman said apart from politicians, polling companies were also judged at this year’s election.
“In this election there was a marked difference between the polls. Horizon, for example, predicted National would poll around 33% and the Conservative Party over 5%, while Fairfax had National support at 54%. Clearly, TVOne Colmar Brunton Poll and Ipredict were the best. Horizon was the worst performer. This is probably explained by their self–selected sampling which creates the opportunity for parties to “gate-crash” and some were openly doing so during the campaign,” he said.
On the left, Labour has the problem that it has shifted itself out of the centre-ground by promoting unpopular policies like a Capital Gains Tax that failed to resonate with middle New Zealand voters.
The above is the edited version of the views expressed by Dr Muriel Newman, Director of the New Zealand Centre for Political Research, in her web-based free weekly Newsletter, NZCPR Weekly. For full text, visit www.nzcpr.com
