Although isolated geographically and despite being a small nation, New Zealand is considered a major asset by the international community and an important player in world affairs.
Its democratic credential, tough stand on nuclear disarmament and active participation in global organisations such as the UN have earned for New Zealand respect and position of importance over the past two centuries.
The country also earned its credentials through active participation in the two World Wars, the Vietnam War and peace-building efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Its voice is also heard in Nuclear Non-Proliferation forums.
New Zealand is lucky not to have had external threats, save for a period when Japan threatened to run through after Pearl Harbour in 1941.
US Protection
The Royal British Navy guaranteed its security to New Zealand until the end of World War II. During the Cold War, Washington provided a similar guarantee through the Australia New Zealand and the United States (ANZUS) Treaty. New Zealand currently comes under the security umbrella of the Pacific Command of the United States (PACOM) stationed in Hawaii.
One needs to understand the huge shift in geopolitics with the rise of China as a Naval and a land power.
It is an international norm that a Nation’s Defence Policy often shapes its Foreign Policy and Trade. Such a Policy would consider at the outset the chance of ‘land war,’ the most horrific of all conflicts.
Every country faces the dilemma of identifying the threat and finding effective solution to combat that threat.
What is New Zealand’s Security Dilemma? Is there a chance of war with any of the neighbouring countries with a large Army and Navy?
The answer is ‘No.’
New Zealand’s historic “Sphere of Influence” among South Pacific nations such as Fiji, Cook Islands, Tonga and Samoa are actively courted by China through its Soft Power. Regular high-level visits of Chinese military officials to the South Pacific have heightened the chance of establishing a Chinese Naval Base in Vanuatu.
Even in Cook Islands, which are a protectorate of New Zealand, ‘China Town’ has become a usual thing.
It is here that one needs to understand the shifting paradigm.
Australian Shadow
After severing its nuclear ties with the US in the 1986, resulting in the lapse of the ANZUS Treaty, New Zealand become a shadow of Australia in defence.
This worked to an extent until Kevin Rudd became the Prime Minister of Australia in 2007. His sound understanding of the shifting geopolitics in Asia with the ascendance of China and his ability to speak Chinese accorded China a special position in the Australian equation.
He also understood that the then US President George W Bush’s conservative policy of ‘Balancing’ and ‘Containing’ China might hamper Australia’s security interests.
Australian Strategic Analyst Huge White had warned that Indonesia was a greater threat to Australia than China.
The China Connection
The Labour Party led the New Zealand Government (1999-2008) distanced itself from the US on political differences, shifting its focus towards China. Among the highlights of that regime was the Free Trade Agreement signed by the two countries on April 7, 2008 in Beijing.
New Zealand felt the need to forge an enduring and more meaningful friendship with Washington when the South Pacific Island nations showed reluctance in establishing transparent and viable democratic form of governance.
Fiji for instance, was ready to severe diplomatic ties with both Australia and New Zealand, hoping that Beijing would support its military regime in international organisations such as the UN and provide economic support through its Yuan.
The White Paper
These developments encouraged New Zealand to court the US again.
The ‘Wellington Declaration,’ signed by the US and New Zealand during the visit of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last year was a high point in the bilateral relations between the two countries. The Declaration, incorporating a White Paper on Defence, envisaged six major features.
The White Papers said, “In a sometimes violent world there will be occasions when the use of military force would be appropriate. It is likely that New Zealand would consider the possible use of military force in the following circumstances: (a) in response to a direct threat to New Zealand and its territories (b) in response to a direct threat to Australia and (c) as part of collective action in support of a member of the Pacific Islands Forum facing a direct threat.
The White Paper envisaged the world security scenario in the next 25 years with an understanding that the US will remain a pre-eminent force.
It also called for an increase in the size of the New Zealand Defence Forces and the Defence Budget. Though not explicitly stated, the White Paper recognised that Wellington would get closer to Washington in the event of Beijing become ‘unduly influential in the South Pacific.’
On political ideology, the National Government led by Prime Minister John Key would find it easier dealing with the US than China.
Mr Key was in the US Capital last fortnight, his last visit overseas this year.
New Zealand heads towards World Cup Rugby, which it hosts this year, and later towards the General Election, scheduled for November 26.
