Thomas Scrimgeour
Auckland, November 5, 2024
That most English Englishman, G K Chesterton, observing the American taste for rocking chairs, theorised that their choice of furniture revealed something significant about the national character.
“A flippant critic might suggest that they select rocking chairs so that, even when they are sitting down, they need not be sitting still.”
A spectacle
For many Kiwis, American politics has become something of a sporting spectacle. Team colours, statistical forecast models, and thriving betting markets complete the effect.
News coverage tends towards the immediate and the splashy, so culture war issues get the most coverage. For New Zealand spectators, the beauty of this is that the effect of such policies would not be felt here, we can enjoy the game without skin in it.
Every American election, pundits trip over one another to declare most loudly that this is the most consequential American election in a generation, or better yet, of all time. Given the decline of the unipolar world, where America reigned as the only superpower since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1992, it certainly feels like that should be the case.
But, at least from a New Zealand perspective, the implications of this election are hard to predict. Certainly, Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs threatened to hurt our trade; America currently receives 12% of our total exports. Joe Biden kept most of the previous Trump Administration’s tariffs. The Democratic party have always been unreliable free traders, and Kamala Harris might prove to be so as well.
Foreign Policy
After a long hiatus, foreign policy is back as an election issue. But for all the talk of Mr Trump’s alleged isolationism, it is hard to imagine a genuine withdrawal from the world. Ms Harris, for her part, expresses platitudes in foreign policy more than any profound theory.
American foreign policy is currently operating without strong input from the president. There is no reason to think the machine would not continue to function as normal.
Despite the general trend towards covering this as the “most important” American election, there are, invariably, dissenters. This typically takes the form: America is sinking, and changing the ship captain will not make a difference. The evidence is easy enough to point to: the federal government has not run a budget surplus in over 20 years, and neither candidate has a credible plan to get there. Almost half of Americans think “total economic collapse” will likely happen within the next 10 years.
But, then again, many have gone broke before, betting against America.
The country continues to defy the economic malaise that has taken hold of the rest of the developed world over the last decade, still experiencing steady economic growth year on year.
Despite the appearance of instability and conflict, American institutions remain strong.
When going to the polls, Americans chose between “Make America Great Again” and “We are not going back.”
In all likelihood, both slogans will be proven wrong. America will continue much as it ever has, rocking back and forth, back and forth.
Thomas Scrimgeour is a Researcher at the Auckland-based Maxim Institute, an independent think tank working to promote the dignity of every person in New Zealand by standing for freedom, justice, compassion, and hope.
