Venu Menon
Wellington, August 2,2024
The Climate Change Commission’s first emissions reduction monitoring report, released this week, shows emissions have been in decline in New Zealand up until April 2024, though more work is needed to align with its long-term targets.
The report says the country is on track to meet the first emissions budget but could fall short in the future owing to risk factors linked to agriculture and transport.
The number of trees felled is a matter of particular concern that could set the country back in terms of staying within budget from 2022-2025.
Emissions from transport also need to be watched.
But New Zealand has done well cutting fuel emissions by transitioning to electric vehicles.
Commission Chair Rod Carr points to key measures for driving down emissions, which include: “decarbonising electricity supply, decarbonising industry, reducing on-farm emissions, adopting low and zero-emissions vehicles, and land use change to forestry.”
Carr estimates that, together, “these could deliver around three quarters of what’s needed for the second and third emissions budget.”
But planting more trees, in and of itself, is not a practical solution to cutting emissions because trees grow at their own pace.
However, afforestation is a cost-effective long-term option that contributes to achieving future climate targets.
The graph shows a consistent annual drop in emissions in New Zealand since 2019.
Gross emissions fell across sectors from 2021 to 2022, with the largest drop reflected in energy and industry.
A positive sign is that productivity has outpaced pollution since 1990, though weather conditions, fluctuations in the economy and global prices of fossil fuels play a part.
New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) has risen by 147% since 1990, while gross emissions have risen by 14% during that period.
But New Zealand still has the third-highest ratio of GDP to gross emissions amongst advanced economies, after Australia and Canada.
New Zealand aims to attain net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This includes lowering methane gas emissions.
But methane continues to be emitted by landfills and farming, the report notes. This would put the country behind in meeting the second and third emissions budget.
The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), though an important item in the climate action tool kit, is proving to be ineffective in drawing people because of the barriers involved, such as access to capital and so on. The scheme also does not provide certainty about the units available to emitters.
The Commission report foresees risks to meeting the third emissions budget for 2031-2035. The second budget (2026-2030) is on track, but only barely.
It is also not confident the country will meet the 2030 target of cutting methane emitted by farm animals and landfills by 10%.
Overall, though global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions are climbing, their rise is checked by climate action and the use of new technologies.
In New Zealand, there is a need for “cost-effective and durable climate action” for the country to achieve its emissions budgets and the 2050 target.
The Commission report warns that the government’s actions to meet climate goals can have mixed results for “different sectors, regions, and communities, and across generations, [that] need to be managed to avoid inequities.”
Venu Menon is an Indian Newslink reporter based in Wellington
