The ensuing General Election (September 20), unlike its predecessors, is not a contest just between National and Labour. A number of smaller parties including the Greens, New Zealand First, Conservative and Internet Mana have begun to make waves in opinion polls. If National does not get an absolute majority to govern alone, or if Labour manages to improve its performance, these smaller parties may hold the balance of power.
While it is too early to predict the outcome of the election, opinion polls continue to suggest that National would return for a third term. Labour remained far below 30% at press time and Leader David Cunliffe should convince voters that he and his party can provide a better alternative.
The Leaders’ Debate, featuring National Leader (and Prime Minister) John Key and Mr Cunliffe, hosted by Mike Hosking on TV One on August 28 may be the beginning of a more balanced and less tempered election campaign which had turned nasty two weeks ago with the publication of Nicky Hager’s ‘Dirty Politics.’
The voting public want politicians to confine their campaigning to policies and programmes and not personalities. People have voiced their comments on talkback shows, websites and blogs, in addition to writing letters to editors of newspapers.
The constitution of the next Council of Ministers could spell a change if the voters return a hung Parliament.
The Labour Party continues to languish in opinion polls. A bounce back before the Election would require a miracle.
Although voting is not compulsory in terms of the existing provisions of the New Zealand Electoral Act, the country has been consistently witnessing a decline in the voter turnout at the polling booths for the past two decades.
Electoral Commission statistics show that New Zealanders registered a high percentage of votes in 1987 (89.1%), 1990 (85.2%), 1993 (85.2%), 1996 (88.3%), 1999 (84.8%) but began to slide since 2002 (77%). The trend has remained low since 2005 (80.9%), 2008 (79.46%) and 2011 (74.81%).
Elections have always excited people, although some surveys showed apathy among the younger members of the society, which is likely to reverse this year, given the fact both Labour and National have introduced a number of new faces as their electoral candidates and on their lists.
The Indian community, which is likely to account for about 80,000 votes throughout the country, has thus far been somewhat indifferent towards politics, largely supporting Labour. In a number of constituencies which account for a large number of Indian population, especially Mt Albert and Mt Roskill in Auckland, the winning candidates (both from Labour) have drawn their strength from the community.
But this should not be interpreted to mean that the community holds the key to electoral results; far from it; while the Indian vote is important, it is not critical to any party in any constituency.
Elections are just one part of the network of institutions (like honest courts) that need to be in place for democracy to work properly.
Without those institutions, voting sometimes seems, at least in the short term, to make things worse.
