Analysis by Laura Walters
Wellington, March 12, 2025
The former Chief Executive should be in his element over the coming fortnight of round-the-clock sell, sell, sell: first at his flagship investor summit then in India, one of the world’s largest economies.
What should have been a dream week for the Prime Minister has started with nightmarish Polls.
Christopher Luxon, the former Chief Executive, the salesman, the schmoozer will be on full display this coming fortnight as he headlines his government’s flagship Investment Summit in Auckland later this week, before heading to India to try to get cut-through with the world’s fastest growing major economy.
But back in Wellington, questions are swirling about the significance of more Polls that put the left bloc ahead and cast doubt over the Prime Minister’s ability to connect with Kiwis.
Summit: An important signal
The flagship investor summit is being billed as New Zealand’s chance to showcase the country’s infrastructure pipeline and growth sectors to companies that collectively manage about $6 trillion in capital.
Attendees to the Conference (which will cost $1 million to put on) include Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds and major banks, as well as delegates from the construction and engineering sector, coming from Australia, Europe, Asia and North America.
During Monday’s post-Cabinet press conference, Luxon said this summit is an important signal that New Zealand is open for business and is an attractive place for investment.
“We know that there is a world awash with cash, and we, frankly, just haven’t been getting our fair share,” he said.
Luxon described the country as a ‘Safe Haven.’ In a volatile world that is becoming more uncertain and complex, New Zealand has abundant natural resources, strong democratic systems and the rule of law, he said.
Bringing in more foreign direct investment to help grow the economy and deal with the country’s infrastructure deficit, is at the heart of the Prime Minister’s plan to make New Zealand a more prosperous nation. And this summit marks the moment where Luxon gets to stop talking about how important it is to get more money flowing into New Zealand and start doing deals to make that happen.
The government is hoping that the rubber will soon hit the road, as it uses the Summit to formally open registrations of interest for the first stage of the Northland Expressway.
Passage to India
Later in the week, Luxon will fly to India with what is believed to be the largest-ever delegation to travel with a Prime Minister, as he attempts to deepen and broaden ties with an increasingly influential player in the Indo-Pacific Region. As well as the usual business Leaders and media crew, Luxon will take his Ministers for tourism, trade and ethnic communities, as well as MPs from other parties and a community and cultural delegation.
India is the fifth largest economy in the world and is expected to become the third largest. At the moment, New Zealand is not getting a big enough slice of this pie either, Luxon says.
The previous Labour government cooled on trying to get a Free Trade deal with India, but Luxon is doubling down on his promise to deliver a free trade agreement by the end of the term, despite trade experts and commentators discounting his chances of delivering on that campaign commitment.
Regardless of the potential for broken promises, Luxon is throwing everything at this relationship, which he says is key to improving New Zealand’s security, prosperity and society.
While it has taken a while to secure the visit, now he has got Prime Minister Narendra Modi locked into his diary, Luxon won’t be holding back.
Complex Conversations
The self-described Foreign Policy nerd says that he is comfortable having complex conversations spanning issues of defence and security, economics and trade, and people-to-people issues. Luxon has also proven himself good at building a personal rapport with global Leaders.
This should be a dream couple of weeks for Luxon – someone who is able to step out of Wellington and into his comfort zone, selling New Zealand to the world.
But before the PM’s perfect fortnight kicked off, two critical Polls brought him back to reality.
On Monday, the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll put the left bloc ahead of the right and saw Labour’s Chris Hipkins move ahead of Luxon in the preferred prime minister stakes.
The monthly Poll, conducted March 2-4, showed National up 1.7 points to 33.6% and Labour up 2.8 points to 34.1%. The Greens dropped 3.2 points to 10%, while Act declined 2.3 points to 7%. NZ First was down 1.3 points to 5.1%, while Te Pāti Māori was up 2.1 points to 6.5%
On these numbers, the centre-right block would not be able to form a government.
This Poll comes hot on the heels of a Horizon Research Poll, which found more voters feel negatively about the coalition Government, according to Stuff.
These new Poll results follow two February Polls that also put the left bloc ahead,
Given the Taxpayers’ Union Poll was conducted following Andrew Bayly’s resignation, Luxon’s uncomfortable interview with Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking and the ongoing school lunch debacle, Luxon might see National’s rise as a win.
But his inability to rise in the preferred PM stakes takes away from that shine.
Depressing Polls
On Monday, Luxon and his Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop officially announced the Prime Minister’s major trip to India and spoke about the Investment Summit, but the Prime Minister found himself answering question after question on why Kiwis don’t like him.
The last time a sitting Prime Minister was not the preferred Prime Minister, it was Chris Hipkins a month out from the 2023 election. Before that, it was former National Leader Bill English, a month out from the 2017 election.
Most politicians are well-versed in how to shrug off a poor showing in the Polls, and Luxon did exactly that on Monday afternoon – an approach he also takes internally.
He knows Kiwis will not thank him for navel-gazing, and so his response to the Polling goes something like this: parties and preferred PMs bounce around in the Polls, but the one issue that stays at the top, Poll after Poll, is the cost of living.
“Our job is to focus on what New Zealanders want, and that is all about us fixing the economy and making sure we get money into putting these back pockets,” he said.
Luxon is about to enter familiar territory as he flies up to Auckland and then on to Delhi, where he will be the Chief Guest at the Defence and Security Raisina Dialogue.
The more difficult job for him will be communicating to everyday New Zealanders how an Investment Summit with Sovereign Wealth Funds and a trip to press the flesh with the Indian Prime Minister help everyday New Zealanders doing it tough.
There may be a growing (at least ambient) acceptance among political parties that there is not enough money in New Zealand to achieve the standard of living many aspire to, but Luxon will need to be explicit in making that link between foreign direct investment (and trade deals) and New Zealanders’ day-to-day experience.
Many of the benefits that the government hopes will flow from this fortnight’s meetings will take years to realise (the Northland Expressway is expected to be delivered by 2034).
Unless the Prime Minister is able to sell his global relationships to New Zealanders, his efforts at selling New Zealand may be in vain.
Laura Walters is the Political Editor at Newsroom in Wellington. She leads Newsroom’s Parliamentary Team and specialises in Education, Justice and Crown-Māori Relations.
