One in every three Indians will be obese by 2050
Vineeta Rao
Auckland, March 5, 2025
When I visited India last year, a friend of mine joked that she did not need a kitchen in her new house. With meal delivery services like Zomato and Swiggy around, very few took to cooking at home, she said, laughing.
Meal delivery and fast food were cheaper and more convenient to access than home-cooked meals. It seems to be an opinion that thousands of Indians share.
While not solely to blame, Zomato and Swiggy may be contributing to India’s next big epidemic: Obesity.
A new study published by The Lancet, a weekly general medical journal published established in London in 1823 (with additional editorial offices in New York and Beijing), 450 million Indians over the age of 25 would probably be obese or overweight by 2050.
India joins China and the USA atop this infamous list.
A dangerous trend
According to the Journal, historical data and trends indicate that around 3.8 billion people over the age of 25 across the world are likely to become obese. Given that the world population currently stands at eight billion, this means that nearly half the world’s adult population is likely to be overweight and 1.95 billion of these will be obese.
Over the last 20 years, the rate of health problems related to being overweight and obese has increased by more than 15%. This makes it one of the biggest health risks and the fastest-growing health problem worldwide. The Lancet study found that the global prevalence of obesity has increased by 155.1% in males and 104.9% in females since 1990.
Tracking and understanding obesity data is critical in prevention and intervention, not just for managing obesity itself but also for outcome diseases like diabetes and hypertension.
Data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) finds that overabundance of body fat increases the risk of non-communicable diseases, including 13 types of Cancer, Type-2 Diabetes, heart problems and lung conditions, leading to premature deaths.
The DALYS Equation
In 2021, there were 3.71 million deaths and 129 million years of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYS) caused by being overweight and obese.
DALYS denotes the measurement of the overall burden of disease, globally, nationally and regionally. One DALY represents the loss of one year in full health. It is calculated using a simple formula, adding the years lost due to premature mortality due to disease and the years of life lost living in a state of ill health.
This is best illustrated by this example, shared by the WHO, of a person who dies at age 50.
If the standard life expectancy for their gender and nationality (which takes into account other factors such as race, culture and diet) is calculated at 75 years and this person has lived with an illness for five years, then DALYS is calculated with a disability weight of 0.3, meaning they lost 30% of their healthy life during that time.
It is clear that while people are living longer today than they were, these extra years are not necessarily spent in good health. For instance, in New Zealand, a significant proportion of DALYS occurs because of chronic diseases such as Cancer, Cardiovascular Disease and Mental Health issues.
In India, low life expectancy and DALYS are mainly caused by non-communicable diseases like heart disease, stroke, lung diseases, cancer, and diabetes.
Additionally, infectious diseases like tuberculosis, diarrhoea, and newborn illnesses contribute to the problem. These are compounded by poor healthcare, malnutrition, and pollution, placing a huge burden on health infrastructure and budget.
The Obesity Crisis
In India, the prevalence of obesity is estimated at 4.4% for males and 7.5% for females.
There is also a disturbingly sharp increase in the number of Indian children suffering from obesity. According to the WHO, in 2022, there were 390 million Indian children and adolescents aged 5-19 years who were overweight, including 160 million living with obesity. This is a stark contrast to the numbers from 1990 and a starker departure from a time when India routinely topped the list of undernourished children.
You do not have to look beyond the nearest fast-food chain to find the most obvious culprit. Data shows an overlap in rising obesity trends in what are termed low and middle-income countries (LIMc) and the growth of fast-food chains and food delivery services.
The Lancet study stated that the population growth, improvement in per-capita income, and weaker regulations created favourable markets for expansion. In India, the increase in disposable income, urbanisation and nutritional illiteracy, adds to these growth factors.
The awareness issue
There is also a general lack of awareness of nutrition and a tendency to opt for convenience foods. India displays one of the largest annual growth in ultra-processed food and beverage sales per capita between 2009 and 2019.
2024 data revealed that the Indian fast food market was valued at $33 billion. The fast food market in India is expected to reach $63 billion by 2033.
What could be driving this surge? Urbanisation, changing food habits and easy access via food delivery Apps. Food delivery Apps like Zomato and Swiggy grew in popularity during the pandemic. Today, the online food delivery market in India is over $7.5 billion and is expected to reach approximately $27.7 billion by 2030.
India’s current health focus is on communicable diseases but there is some impetus on national fitness initiatives, such as Prime Minister Modi’s Fit India Movement.
Government Programmes
Called, Poshan Abhiyaan (National Nutrition Mission), the programme was launched in 2019 to improve nutritional outcomes among children, pregnant women and lactating mothers.
The National Programme for Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases focuses on preventative measures to control obesity. Concerned medical professionals are also calling for a ‘sin’ tax, like the tax implemented on nicotine products to be implemented on sugary drinks and junk food. The reasoning is that added taxes make the product expensive and reduce consumption. The revenue generated can be used to fund public health initiatives such as nutrition education and other obesity control programmes.
Healthcare professionals are calling on the government to act swiftly and decisively as it is now clear that all measures to combat obesity need to be implemented on a war footing.
Vineeta Rao is an Indian Newslink Reporter based in Auckland.
