Australians will elect their next government on May 3, 2025
Michelle Grattan
Canberra, Australia, May 1, 2025
Australia’s Labor Party will be encouraged by the Liberals’ victory in Canada’s election, undoubtedly much helped by US President Donald Trump.
Trump’s extraordinary attack on the United States’ northern ally, with his repeated suggestion Canada should be the 51st American state, galvanised voters. Former banker Mark Carney, seen as best able to deal with Trump, won the internal race to succeed Justin Trudeau as the Prime Minister and now has clinched the election.
The Conservatives, favourites a few months ago, couldn’t compete.
The Trump factor is not so dramatic in our election, but it is present and working for Labor. In a time of instability, some potential swinging voters are more inclined to opt for the status quo.
Anthony Albanese said on April 30, “Mark Carney has stood for Canada’s national interests, just as I stand up for Australia’s national interest.”
The Albanese-Dutton scoreboard
Australians do not like Trump or his policies. A recent Lowy poll found people’s trust in the US to act responsibly in the world has dropped 20 points in a year, although they were nearly equally divided on whether Albanese or Peter Dutton would be better to handle the US and Trump.
After initially thinking Trump’s election could assist the Coalition, Dutton has not been able to shake off the “Trump factor” since it became clear it was a drag.
Meanwhile, Dutton was having another difficult day on the campaign trail on April 30, 2025. His electorate office had been vandalised (again) in the early hours. Then, when he visited a sporting ground in the highly marginal seat of Gilmore on the NSW south coast, three local unionists, outfitted in protective gear, turned up to play for the cameras at finding a spot for a nuclear reactor.
In Gilmore, former NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance is making another run, after being narrowly pipped by Labor at the 2022 election.
Dutton had planned to hold his news conference at the ground but cancelled it and moved on. When the press conference finally happened, it was short but not sweet. Both leader and press pack were, by that stage, tetchy.
Unlike his unfortunate experience on April 28, with the price of eggs, Dutton did pass the test when asked inflation rate. He quickly answered 2.7%. This is not the headline rate, which is 2.4%, but it is the trimmed mean rate. That’s the rate preferred by the Reserve Bank, so he would get a tick from Governor Michele Bullock, even if his choice caused some confusion in the media. On Wednesday we get the March quarter CPI figures.
How the Leaders’ debates rated
Nine won by a whisker the ‘ratings’ contest among TV stations in the Leaders’ debates, followed by the ABC. These are considered high figures for election debates. What we don’t know is how many viewers watched all four debates. Now that took some stamina!
Essential Research’s latest poll has an interesting table of people’s ratings of former prime ministers, with John Howard and Bob Hawke filling the first two spots.
Howard, 85, remains in demand for Liberal campaigning. Speaking to The Conversation, he reels off quite a round of seats he’s visited, including Curtin, Tangey, Bullwinkel and Hasluck in Western Australia (all in a day and a half); Wentworth, Mackellar, Robertson, Warringhah and Bennelong (his old seat) in NSW, and Bruce in Melbourne. He agrees the campaign cycle is faster these days, but he obviously still relishes the smell of the political grease paint.
Michelle Grattan is a Professorial Fellow at the University of Canberra in Australia. The above article, which appeared in The Conversation, has been reproduced here under Creative Commons.
