Phil Goff’s comments about Donald Trump were unwise but his dismissal may say more about the current US administration
Analysis by Sam Sachdeva
Newsroom, Wellington, March 8, 2025
Foreign Minister Winston Peters is fond of borrowing from the words of former British Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill; understandably so, given that Peters was named after the wartime Leader.
There is a distinct irony, then, that Phil Goff’s own decision to quote Churchill has led to his downfall as New Zealand’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom.
Posing a question to Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen after a speech, the former Labour Leader and Foreign Minister referred to a speech purportedly made by Churchill following the 1938 Munich Agreement in which British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain signed off on Nazi Germany’s annexation of a part of Czechoslovakia.
“He turned to Chamberlain, he said, ‘You had the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, yet you will have war.’ “President Trump has restored the bust of Churchill to the Oval Office. But do you think he really understands history?”
Problems with Goff’s Statement
There were two problems with Goff’s statement.
First, it is not clear Churchill ever directed such a remark to Chamberlain, as the International Churchill Society notes, although Goff is hardly the first person to incorrectly attribute a quote to him – what is sometimes known as ‘Churchillian Drift.’
It is the second, more meaningful problem, implicitly equating Donald Trump’s approach to Russia with Chamberlain’s ‘dishonourable’ appeasement that led to Peters’ decision to dismiss Goff over the remarks, as first reported by The Post.
Coming from a member of the public, the question would have still been pointed but understandably so, given the extent to which the Trump administration has dramatically pivoted away from American support for Ukraine.
As a New Zealand Diplomat, however, Goff’s remarks were not particularly diplomatic, as made clear by the laughter in the room and Valtonen’s knowing but somewhat evasive response: “I did it myself, I quoted Sir Winston Churchill and he has made very timeless remarks.”
Chatham House breaches
The venue for the fateful remarks, the Chatham House think tank, has added a layer of complexity given the rule with which it shares a name. While the Chatham House Rule holds that the speakers at an event can be quoted but not identified, the Institute itself holds events that do not adhere to that restriction – Valtonen’s included.
Whether Goff was aware his comments would be public remains unclear, although the presence of video cameras in the room should have been a giveaway that nobody was speaking anonymously.
Does it meet the threshold for a sackable offence? That was ultimately what Peters decided, although among prominent dissenters are Goff’s former boss Helen Clark, who said on social media: “Prima facie the question is not a sackable offence.”
Certainly, they are not the most sensational comments a New Zealand Diplomat has made about American politics.
That award goes to Caroline Beresford, who as New Zealand’s Deputy Head of Mission to the US in 2018 sent a despairing message to the Democratic Party on Twitter: “Please get your shit together or we will all die.” Peters was the Foreign Minister then but did not intervene, while Beresford is now New Zealand’s Ambassador to Vietnam, having presumably learned from her mistakes.
What is different now is the scorched earth approach taken to critics by Trump and his team, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky experienced firsthand.
Debunking Fake Social Media
Peters’ insistence that he would have acted the same way whether the comment had been ‘about Germany, France, Tonga or Samoa’ did not ring entirely true, given the clear sensitivities around dealing with the current US administration.
Last month, Peters made a point of debunking a fake social media post in which Trump labelled New Zealand a ‘third-world country,’ while he and several other ministers were equally swift to push back against a Haaretz story claiming Israeli visitors to the country were being asked to provide details of their military service to receive a visa.
The Haaretz story had been picked up by Republican senator and Trump’s former rival turned supporter Ted Cruz, who said the news made it “difficult to treat New Zealand as a normal ally within the American alliance system,” a clear threat, leaving to one side the fact that New Zealand is in fact not an ally of the US.
With the coalition Government having made a point of moving closer to the US and other like-minded partners (albeit before Trump’s return to the White House), and eager to win exemptions from potentially devastating tariffs on agriculture exports or other sectors, they appear hyper-vigilant to any publicity that could attract the president’s ire and undermine bilateral relations.
Goff’s sacking may send other New Zealand diplomats further into their shells, not that they are renowned for their free and frank expression in public. But given the Trump administration’s approach is in many respects the antithesis of diplomacy, and the wide-ranging impacts of American foreign policy, some will surely be gritting their teeth even as they hold the national line.
The runners to replace Goff
For now, there is the small matter of a High Commissioner to replace, although exactly when that happens is unclear, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade saying only that it was “in discussion with High Commissioner Goff about his return to New Zealand.”
Gerry Brownlee to London?
Goff’s current Deputy Guergana Guermanoff has the credentials to succeed him, having served as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Foreign Policy Adviser and as Consul-General in Shanghai.
The Ministry’s Deputy Chief Executive for policy Taha Macpherson has been posted to London previously, while fellow Deputy Secretary Bernadette Cavanagh is another name mentioned by observers.
Outside the Ministry, Former Consul-General to Los Angeles, and Antarctica NZ Chairman Leon Grice is believed to have a strong relationship with Peters, while his views on Trump appear more in line with those of the Foreign Minister.
Alternatively, Peters could opt for a political appointee, as has often been the case in London.
While he has made clear his principled opposition to shoulder-tapping former MPs for such roles, there have been occasional exceptions to the rule, such as when he appointed Former Labour Minister Dame Annette King as High Commissioner to Australia.
Gerry Brownlee might be eager to be relieved of his role as Speaker, although that would require finding a replacement. Some have even jested that Peters could appoint himself, given his impending handover of the Deputy Prime Minister role to David Seymour, although he is far too used to speaking his own mind by this point.
One thing is for sure: whoever does replace Goff will be keeping their hand down during any question-and-answer sessions.
Sam Sachdeva is Newsroom’s National Affairs Editor based in London, covering Foreign Affairs and Trade, Housing and other issues of national significance. The above Analysis and picture have been published under a special agreement.
